What does Brexit mean?

By Nureen Noor, Pablo Donas and Rafael Mafra

Picture by Richie Hancox

The UK voted to exit the EU revoking Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty in June 2016.

It ends 46  years of membership. There are still many questions about what this means and the many different scenarios with only 23 days to go.

TIMELINE

• 1973: UK JOINS EEC
• 1975: UK JOINS THE EU
• 1992: THE MAASTRICHT TREATY
• 2017: ARTICLE 50 OF THE 2009 LISBON TREATY INVOKED

A NO-DEAL BREXIT

More than two hundred MPs have signed a letter to the PM asking her to avoid the scenario of a no deal, but without an agreement on the table, a no-deal Brexit is a possibility.

This may mean harder border checks for travellers between EU countries and the UK, longer queues at the airports and visas or fees to cross the border. It will also cause difficulties for drivers without a special permit. Transport, trade, phone roaming charges could be severely affected.

This scenario also includes a no transition period. This means the UK won’t have the two years to adapt.

The Government has confirmed EU citizens living in the UK will be protected.

EXTENSION

As the deadline gets closer the possibility of an extension is getting more likely. If there is a delay, there are three possible scenarios:

1- MPs would vote in favour of the current deal, as there would not be enough time for alterations.

2- Another referendum would be held, but despite the Labour Party now in favour of it, it seems unlikely that the MPs would allow a people’s vote.

3- There would be a feeling that the UK government had failed to reach an agreement, which could lead to new elections.

THE BACKSTOP

The backstop is a device that ensures that there is no hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, if no agreement is reached on trade and security arrangements. Northern Ireland would stay in the customs union and in much of the single market, and the friction-free border would be guaranteed.

The major issue is that Brussels wants it to apply only in Northern Ireland, whereas the UK government does not want to have separate customs arrangements in Northern Ireland and in the rest of the UK. The PM argued in favour of applying the backstop in the whole of the UK but found resistance in her own party.

The UK tried to make it temporary, but the EU would not accept it as the guarantees it offers are needed for as long as an alternative solution is not found.

MPs rejected Theresa May’s Brexit deal on 15^th January once before by a record majority of 230.

Another vote is taking place on 12^th March. If they do not vote for an alternative by this date the UK will leave without any deal.