By Sam Sorabjee
The 24th of February 2023 will mark the anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Political and financial backing from the United States and its allies have allowed Ukraine to repeal the Kremlin’s assault on Kyiv and limit their territorial gains in the country’s bordering lands with Russia.
The cost to Ukraine has been enormous, with 30% of their population displaced, major infrastructure destroyed, and the economy shrinking by 30%. Fighting has remained particularly brutal in recent months, with Russia deploying waves of offensives located around the city of Bakhmut, and hundreds of soldiers killed or wounded daily on both sides.
Wolodymyr Pawluk, Executive Director for The Ukrainian Information Service, and Chair of London’s Ukrainian Community Center in Holland Park, said “From 2014 we’ve been helping Ukrainians with either humanitarian or military aid, as in IVAX, medical equipment mostly, helping soldier when it comes to medical aid.
“We do have volunteers who can drive all the way to Bakhmut, but it’s getting more and more difficult. Now you wouldn’t be able to get through there because the fighting is so intense. The Russians do not really care about casualties, they are prepared to sacrifice hundreds, if not thousands, and that’s what Ukraine is up against.
“The doctrine in the West, and the way they train Ukrainians is to first and foremost make sure casualties are as low as possible, while the Russians are the complete opposite.”
Moving into the second year since Russia’s invasion, a spring offensive is expected by the Russians, with the Kremlin preparing to launch an assault before the war’s first anniversary. To achieve this, Putin is mobilising vast amounts of the population, using a domestic propaganda machine to maintain public support for the war by pushing a revisionist history that falsely claims Ukraine is Russian land.
He has also called on private military contractors to bolster the Russian military. Most notably, the Wagner Group who have recruited directly from the Russia prison system to fill their ranks, offering six-month contracts with the promise of freedom if they survive. Yet, no significant military gains for Russia have left tensions between Wagner commanders and Russian military commanders.
On Friday, The White House said it will designate the Russian mercenary organisation as a “transnational criminal organization”, and impose further sanctions in the coming week, to “recognize the transcontinental threat that Wagner poses”.
Support from the United Kingdom has remained strong despite domestic political turmoil. Pawluk said: “At the start the response was immense, the amount of supplies we were receiving was great. After six months of the war, we are finding that the aid from other countries is increasing, in regard to humanitarian and also military aid.
“Fight jets would be great, but I don’t think that’s going to happen, we can be greedy but were just grateful of the support we’ve received anyway. Especially when it comes to tanks, to training of troops, to munitions and heavy guns, I think it’s all made a big difference.”
No matter what happens on the battlefield over the coming year, this war has greatly damaged the reputation of the Russian military. Initial goals of taking Kyiv have become almost impossible, and the counter-offensive by the Ukrainians last Autumn collapsed the Russian front in Kharkiv and Kherson regions, forcing a retreat. The Kremlin’s attempt to limit western influence in the region has only caused it to strengthen, with former Soviet countries now closer to the West then ever before.
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